12 May

Biggest household debt -it isn’t your mortgage! CRA taxes

General

Posted by: Michael James

Mortgages seem to always be the target of government intervention to limit household debt loads.  What about income taxes? An analogy to consider!

Stolen from a friend, but sums up Labour in Uk and NDP in British Columbia thinking very nicely……
The UK Tax system explained in beer.
Suppose that once a week, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to £100.
If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this: –
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay £1.
The sixth would pay £3.
The seventh would pay £7.
The eighth would pay £12.
The ninth would pay £18.
And the tenth man (the richest) would pay £59.
So, that’s what they decided to do.
The ten men drank in the bar every week and seemed quite happy with the arrangement until, one day, the owner caused them a little problem. “Since you are all such good customers”, he said, “I’m going to reduce the cost of your weekly beer by £20. Drinks for the ten men would now cost just £80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free but what about the other six men? The paying customers? How could they divide the
£20 windfall so that everyone would get his fair share? They realized that
£20 divided by six is £3.33 but if they subtracted that from everybody’s share then not only would the first four men still be drinking for free but the fifth and sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer.
So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fairer to reduce each man’s bill by a higher percentage. They decided to follow the principle of the tax system they had been using and he proceeded to work out the amounts he suggested that each should now pay.
And so, the fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (a 100% saving).
The sixth man now paid £2 instead of £3 (a 33% saving).
The seventh man now paid £5 instead of £7 (a 28% saving).
The eighth man now paid £9 instead of £12 (a 25% saving).
The ninth man now paid £14 instead of £18 (a 22% saving).
And the tenth man now paid £49 instead of £59 (a 16% saving).
Each of the last six was better off than before with the first four continuing to drink for free.
But, once outside the bar, the men began to compare their savings. “I only got £1 out of the £20 saving,” declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, “but he got £10.″
“Yes, that’s right,” exclaimed the fifth man. “I only saved £1 too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more benefit than me.”
“That’s true” shouted the seventh man. “Why should he get £10 back when I only got £2? The wealthy get all the breaks.”
“Wait a minute,” yelled the first four men in unison, “we didn’t get anything at all. This new tax system exploits the poor”. The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next week the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had their beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important –they didn’t have enough money between all of them to pay for even half of the bill.
And that, boys and girls, journalists and government ministers, is how our tax system works. The people who already pay the highest taxes will naturally get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy and they just might not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas, where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.”

5 May

Bank of Canada thoughts – Dr. Sherry Cooper

General

Posted by: Michael James

Bank of Canada Upgrades Forecast, But Keeps Rates Unchanged

 

 

For years now, the Governor Stephen Poloz and his Bank of Canada colleagues have held the key overnight rate unchanged at 1/2 percent, while at the Federal Reserve has hiked rates several times with more to come. The jobless rate is at a mere 4.5 percent in the US, clearly at or near full employment and the Fed policy makers have suggested they will reduce liquidity further this year and next. Once again today, the Bank of Canada has held the key overnight rate steady while upgrading their outlook for the economy.

Economists now expect the Canadian economy to grow at a rate of roughly 2.5 percent, compared to 1.4 percent last year and a mere 0.9 percent the year before. Indeed, economic activity has accelerated sharply since the middle of last year–up at a 4.3 percent annual pace over that seven-month period. Job creation has been strong since the summer. The Business Outlook Survey suggests that business investment–a disappointing underperformer–is poised to rise as the oil sector digs itself out of the rut caused by the collapse in oil prices in mid-2014. Export growth accelerated sharply until February, which hopefully is a one-month aberration and housing activity certainly remains strong–too strong in the Greater Toronto Area and its environs, as well as in parts of British Columbia.

No one expects the Bank of Canada to raise rates simply because of the housing market, as housing markets are not overheated in much of the rest of the country.

 

 

In today’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank boosted their forecast of Canada’s economy this year to 2.6 percent from 2.1 percent in the January MPR. For 2018, growth is now projected to be 1.9 percent (slightly below the January forecast). However, the Bank suggested that the “composition of aggregate demand is uneven.” According to today’s MPR, “In the oil and gas sector, a resumption of growth in investment spending is under way in the wake of significant adjustments to past declines in commodity prices. This contributed, together with very strong consumption and residential investment, to a temporary surge in growth in the first quarter. In contrast, non-commodity business investment and exports remain weak, raising questions about the medium-term sustainability of the upturn”.

“Economic activity will be supported by rising foreign demand, federal fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary and financial conditions. In addition, the composition of demand growth is expected to broaden: the pace of household expenditures, especially residential investment, moderates as the contributions from exports and business investment increase, albeit at a much slower pace than would normally be expected at this stage of the cycle. Ongoing competitiveness challenges and uncertainty surrounding the prospects for global trade are expected to limit this broadening of growth. A notable increase in global protectionism remains the most important source of uncertainty facing the Canadian economy”.

The Bank’s forecast remains a bit below the consensus view of Bay Street economists. The Bank has underestimated growth for many quarters. The MPR suggests that “while the degree of excess capacity has declined since the January Report, the Bank judges that in the first quarter of 2017 it remains material, between 1 1/4 and 1/4 per cent”. The output gap is now projected to close in the first half of 2018, a bit sooner than the Bank anticipated in January.

 

 

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca
5 May

CDN Unemployment numbers – May 5th Report Dr. Sherry Cooper

General

Posted by: Michael James

CANADIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN APRIL AT 6.5%–LOWEST RATE SINCE OCTOBER 2008 –BUT ANNUAL WAGE GAINS FELL TO ANOTHER RECORD LOW

Canada’s economy generated virtually no net new job growth in April, on the heels of a  multi-month employment rally that was the strongest in years. Employment has now increased in 15 of the last 17 months with growth over the last year averaging a solid 23,000 per month. The details of the monthly report for April were mixed (with a sharp pull-back in full-time jobs offset by stronger part-time employment) but, on average, more than two-thirds of job gains over the last year have been full-time.

Employment grew by just 3,200 jobs last month, well below the 10,000 forecasted by economists. On a year-over-year basis, however, there were 276,000 more people employed–up 1.5%–and the jobless rate was down 0.6 percentage points. Other positive signs include hours worked numbers that show gains of 1.1% over the past 12 months.

Despite the slowdown in job growth in April, the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 6.5%, its lowest level since October 2008. According to Statistics Canada, the decrease reflected the departure of 45,500 people from the labor force. About half of those were youth, meaning many young people looking for work have stopped looking.
Employment among the population aged 55 and older rose by 24,000 in April, mostly in full-time work, and their unemployment rate declined 0.6 percentage points to 5.6%. On a year-over-year basis, people 55 and older had the fastest rate of employment growth (+3.6% or +133,000) compared with the other demographic groups. This is primarily the result of the continued transition of the baby-boom cohort into this older age group.

For men aged 25 to 54, employment declined by 20,000 in April, mostly in full-time work, and their unemployment rate increased 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%. Since August 2016, their employment gains have totalled 81,000. On a year-over-year basis, their unemployment rate was down 0.4 percentage points.

Among women aged 25 to 54, employment held steady in April and their unemployment rate was little changed at 5.1%. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment for this group was up 71,000 (+1.2%), virtually all in full-time work.

Employment for youth aged 15 to 24 was little changed in April, while their unemployment rate fell 1.1 percentage points to 11.7% as fewer of them searched for work. This is the lowest unemployment rate for youth since September 2008. On a year-over-year basis, youth employment was virtually unchanged.

Employment rose in British Columbia and Prince Edward Island, while it was virtually unchanged in the other provinces. In B.C., employment rose by 11,000 last month and the jobless rate was little changed at 5.5%. Job creation has been on a upward trend in the province with sizable increases in four out the past five months. On a year-over-year basis, employment was up 3.4% in B.C.

Although employment held steady in Ontario, the unemployment rate fell 0.6 percentage points to 5.8%, largely due to a decline in the number of youth searching for work. This is the lowest jobless rate for Ontario since January 2001.

In Alberta, April saw little job gain after a period of growth that began in autumn 2016. The jobless rate in the province was 7.9% in April, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month as fewer people searched for work.

More people were employed in educational services, health care and social assistance, and transportation and warehousing in April. At the same time, employment declined in business, building and other support services, as well as in accommodation and food services.

Public sector employment increased in April, while the number of private sector employees fell. Self-employment was little changed.

Yet, the pace of annual wage rate increases fell to another record low.  The pace of annual wage rate increases for permanent employees fell to 0.5% in April, the lowest in records dating back to the late 1990s. The wages puzzle, which has been cited by the Bank of Canada as evidence of slack in the economy, persists. The weak wage growth is in sharp contrast to what would otherwise appear to be a labour market with little or no slack remaining.  To be sure, other measures of wages have been stronger (wage growth in the alternative (lagged) Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) was 2.4% year-over-year in February) but weaker numbers today from a wage perspective will likely continue to worry the Bank of Canada.

For historical perspective, wage gains have averaged 2.7% over the past decade. Adding to the mystery is that Ontario is the major source of wage sluggishness, with pay increases of 0.2% year-over-year. Full-time jobs also are showing slower wage gains than the national average. Clearly, businesses are very cost conscious, keeping labour costs muted, and economic uncertainty continues to depress the willingness of workers to demand higher wages. This concern can only be enlarged by growing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada as President Trump continues to threaten to renegotiate NAFTA, already imposing punitive duties on soft wood lumber imports from Canada.

Trade tensions as well as a decline in oil prices to $45 a barrel (WTI) and the continuing troubles with Home Capital have added to downward pressure on the Canadian dollar as it has suffered the weakest performance of any of the Group of Ten currencies, now trading at 72.7 cents U.S.

Provincial Unemployment Rates in April In Descending Order (percent)
(Previous months in brackets)
   — Newfoundland and Labrador       14.0 (14.9)
— Prince Edward Island                    10.3 (10.1)
— New Brunswick                               8.7   (8.4)
— Nova Scotia                                     8.3   (8.6)
— Alberta                                             7.9   (8.4)
— Quebec                                             6.6  (6.4)
   — Saskatchewan                                 6.2   (6.0)
— Ontario                                             5.8   (6.4)
— British Columbia                             5.5  (5.4)
— Manitoba                                          5.4  (5.5)

U.S. JOB GROWTH REBOUNDS AND JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2007

U.S. payroll gains rebounded in April by more than forecast and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, signaling that the labor market remains healthy and should support continued increases in consumer spending.

The 211,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls–beating economist forecasts–followed a 79,000 advance in weather-depressed March that was lower than previously estimated. The recovery in employment was most evident in private sector, service-producing jobs.

While the jobless rate is now the lowest since May 2007 (see chart below), wage increases did moderate slightly in April but is still indicative of real wage gains. This continued support to household incomes should contribute to Q2 consumer spending growth, and overall Q2 GDP growth, which is likely to rebound to over 2.5% following a disappointing first quarter increase of only 0.7%. Average hourly earnings, the main wage measure in the report, rose an expected 0.3% though this did not prevent the year-over-year rate from moderating slightly to 2.5% from 2.6% in March and a Q1 average of 2.7%.

Strengthening U.S. business confidence might be translating into hiring, and the data should keep Federal Reserve policy makers on track to raise interest rates in the coming months after officials declared this week that the first-quarter slowdown is likely to be transitory. The Fed refrained from raising rates this week.