13 Dec

Global News- New Mortgage Rules 2018 – the new era

General

Posted by: Michael James

New mortgage rules 2018: A practical guide

WATCH: New mortgage rules mean you might have to buy a smaller home.

 A A 

Come Jan. 1, 2018, Canadians getting, renewing or refinancing a mortgage might have to prove that they would be able to cope with interest rates substantially higher than their contract rate.

New rules by Canada’s federal financial regulator announced in October mean that even borrowers with a down payment of 20 per cent or more will now face a stress test, as has been the case since January of 2017, for applicants with smaller down payments who require mortgage insurance.

Ottawa has already moved to tighten the rules around the mortgage market six times since July 2008, with a series of regulatory tweaks aimed at limiting the amount of debt that Canadians and financial institutions take on.

This is the seventh turn of the screw — and it could have a big impact.

Some 10 per cent of Canadians who got an uninsured mortgage between mid-2016 and mid-2017 would not have qualified under the new standards, a recent analysis by the Bank of Canada suggested.

LISTEN: Erica Alini joins Tasha Kheiriddin to discuss the new mortgage rules 

READ MORE: New mortgage rules could shut out 10% of low-ratio homebuyers: Bank of Canada

To put a number on it, the rules will likely affect about 100,000 homebuyers, who would qualify for a mortgage for their preferred house today but will likely fail the stress test for an equally large loan next year, according a report published by Mortgage Professionals Canada, an industry group.

Here’s how the new guidelines might affect you:

If you’re planning to buy a house with a downpayment of 20 per cent or more next year

The stress test means that financial institutions will vet your mortgage application by using a minimum qualifying rate equal to the greater of the Bank of Canada’s five-year benchmark rate (currently 4.99 per cent) or their contractual rate plus two percentage points.

If you’re going be house-hunting next year, this may force you to settle for a less expensive home than you would be able to buy today. Or, you might have to wait and save up for a larger down payment.

READ MORE: Here’s how much house you’ll be able to buy with the new mortgage stress test

The rules might force Canadians to set their eyes on homes that are up to 20 per cent cheaper. But since few homebuyers are stretching their finances to the limit when applying for a mortgage, the average target price reduction will likely be smaller, $31,000, or 6.8 per cent, according to Will Dunning, chief economist at Mortgage Professionals Canada.

Of the 100,000 or so prospective home buyers that will hit a snag because of the stress test next year, Dunning estimates that about half will be able to make a different purchase than they had planned. The rest will give up on a home purchase.

READ MORE: New data shows how much it costs to rent a 2-bedroom unit across Canada

If you’re renewing your mortgage next year

Lenders don’t have to apply the stress test to clients renewing an existing mortgage.

This means that if you fail the stress test, you’ll probably get stuck renewing with your current financial institution, without being able to shop around for a better rate.

In some cases, “renewing borrowers may be forced to accept uncompetitive rates from their current lenders,” Dunning noted.

READ MORE: Failed the mortgage stress test? Alternative lenders await — at a price

If you’re refinancing your mortgage

If you’re planning on refinancing your mortgage, you’ll have to qualify according to the higher stress-state rates rather than your existing contractual mortgage rate, explained James Laird, president at Toronto-based CanWise Financial.

Say, for example, that you bought a $400,000 home and have a $100,000 mortgage balance left. You’d like to borrow $50,000 more for a renovation. You have a five year fixed-rate mortgage at 3.3 per cent.

Today, your lender would make sure that you can take on a $150,000 loan at 3.3 per cent, said Laird.

Starting next year, your financial institution would have to vet that $150,000 loan using a 5.3 per cent rate. If you’re close to the borrowing limit today, you might have to settle for a smaller loan.

READ MORE: Home renovations: The 4 big risks of borrowing against your house to pay for it

Four cases in which the rules likely won’t affect you

As they generally do, financial regulators have allowed for measures that will ease the transition, making sure the new rules don’t disrupt transactions that are underway by not yet completed in early 2018.

If you sign a purchase agreement on a new home before Jan. 1., lenders won’t have to apply the stress test even if you apply for a mortgage in the new year, said Laird.

This holds for pre-construction sale and purchase agreements, too, he added.

“Usually there’s eventually a cutoff,” said Laird, though in this case it’s not yet clear when that will be.

If you are pre-approved for a mortgage, some lenders will give you 120 days starting Jan. 1 to buy your new home without worrying about the new rules.

The same holds for mortgage refinancing. If you have a mortgage refinance commitment in place by Dec. 31, you have 120 days to follow suit, said Laird.

Of course, the stress test won’t have much of a concrete impact on you if you pass it. Borrowers with plenty of spare financial capacity will be able to go about their business.

WATCH: What you need to know about getting a mortgage

About credit unions

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) rules only apply to federally regulated financial institutions, meaning Canadians might be able to continue borrowing without a stress test if they turn to provincially-regulated credit unions.

READ MORE: As tougher federal mortgage rules loom, will Canadians turn to credit unions?

In the past, however, credit unions have voluntarily adopted new federal standards on mortgage rates “pretty quickly,” said Laird.

Still, adopting rules on a voluntary basis means they would be able to make some exceptions, he added.

The stress test measures only one of three risk metrics lenders look at, said Laird. Essentially, it ensures that borrowers’ housing expenses compared to their income remain below a certain threshold even if rates rise.

But when evaluating a borrower, financial institutions also look at the size of the loan compared to the price of the house, as well as credit scores.

A credit union that has voluntarily adopted the stress test, might make an exception for a family with very strong credit scores and a down payment considerably higher than 20 per cent, even if they fail to qualify under the new rules by a small margin, said Laird.

© 2017 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

11 Dec

Great Post on Evaluating your Variable Rate Mortgage – no panic!

General

Posted by: Michael James

IS IT TIME TO LOCK IN A VARIABLE RATE MORTGAGE?

Approximately 32 per cent of Canadians are in a variable rate mortgage, which with rates effectively declining steadily for the better part of the last ten years has worked well.

Recent increases triggers questions and concerns, and these questions and concerns are best expressed verbally with a direct call to your independent mortgage expert – not directly with the lender. There are nuances you may not think to consider before you lock in, and that almost certainly will not be primary topics for your lender.

Over the last several years there have been headlines warning us of impending doom with both house price implosion, and interest rate explosion, very little of which has come to fruition other than in a very few localised spots and for short periods of time thus far.

Before accepting what a lender may offer as a lock in rate, especially if you are considering freeing up cash for such things as renovations, travel or putting towards your children’s education, it is best to have your mortgage agent review all your options.

And even if you simply wanted to lock in the existing balance, again the conversation is crucial to have with the right person, as one of the key topics should be prepayment penalties.

In many fixed rate mortgage, the penalty can be quite substantial even when you aren’t very far into your mortgage term. People often assume the penalty for breaking a mortgage amounts to three months’ interest payments, which in the case of 90% of variable rate mortgages is correct. However, in a fixed rate mortgage, the penalty is the greater of three months’ interest or the interest rate differential (IRD).

The ‘IRD’ calculation is a byzantine formula. One designed by people working specifically in the best interests of shareholders, not the best interests of the client (you). The difference in penalties from a variable to a fixed rate product can be as much as a 900 per cent increase.

The massive penalties are designed for banks to recuperate any losses incurred by clients (you) breaking and renegotiating the mortgage at a lower rate. And so locking into a fixed rate product without careful planning can mean significant downside.

Keep in mind that penalties vary from lender to lender and there are different penalties for different types of mortgages. In addition, things like opting for a “cash back” mortgage can influence penalties even more to the negative, with a claw-back of that cash received way back when.

Another consideration is that certain lenders, and thus certain clients, have ‘fixed payment’ variable rate mortgages. Which means that the payment may at this point be artificially low, and locking into a fixed rate may trigger a more significant increase in the payment than expected.

There is no generally ‘correct’ answer to the question of locking in, the type of variable rate mortgage you hold and the potential changes coming up in your life are all important considerations. There is only a ‘specific-to-you’ answer, and even then – it is a decision made with the best information at hand at the time that it is made. Having a detailed conversation with the right people is crucial.

It should also be said that a poll of 33 economists just before the recent Bank of Canada rate increase had 27 advising against another increase. This would suggest that things may have moved too fast too soon as it is, and we may see another period of zero movement. The last time the Bank of Canada pushed the rate to the current level it sat at this level for nearly five full years.

Life is variable, perhaps your mortgage should be too.

As always, if you have questions about locking in your variable mortgage, or breaking your mortgage to secure a lower rate, or any general mortgage questions, contact a Dominion Lending Centres mortgage specialist.

DUSTAN WOODHOUSE

Dominion Lending Centres – Accredited Mortgage Professional
Dustan is part of DLC Canadian Mortgage Experts based in Coquitlam, BC

4 Dec

Incredibly Strong Jobs

General

Posted by: Michael James

Incredibly Strong Jobs Report in November, Q3 GDP Growth Slowed On Weak Exports and Housing

bbeb58f0-afea-4686-96a8-3a54496def66The highly anticipated November Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Stats Canada, surpassed all forecasts breaking multi-year records. Employers added a whopping 79,500 jobs last month, bringing the gains over the past 12 months to nearly 400,000. November’s data posted the most robust job market since the 2008-09 recession as the jobless rate plunged to 5.9% in November, down from 6.3% in October. Average employment growth of 32,500 per month over the last year is the fastest pace since 2007. The 5.9% jobless rate, was only lower for a single month before the recent recession—a time when the economy was operating beyond its longer-run capacity limits.
Employment grew across most industries led by manufacturing, retailing and education. Construction jobs increased for the second consecutive month. The employment increase in November was mainly among private sector employees, as both public sector employment and the number of self-employed was little changed.

The employment gain for November is the 12th straight, the longest since the 14-month span that ended in March 2007.

Some of the most substantial gains were in central Canada, with Quebec’s unemployment rate falling to 5.4%, the lowest level on record back to 1976, and Ontario’s at the lowest level since 2000 at 5.5% (see table below). The national jobless rate of 5.9% has fallen 0.9 percentage points over the past 12 months.

Great news for the consumer was the 2.8% November increase in average hourly earnings, up from 2.4% in October and the fastest rise since April 2016. Much of that increase has come in the last few months as wage growth accelerated sharply—finally a bit of evidence that tight labour market conditions are feeding through to wages. If that trend holds up, it will be hard for the Bank of Canada to remain on the sidelines much longer.

One piece of contrary evidence was a sizeable drop in average hours worked that retraced much of the gain seen in recent months. The Bank of Canada has flagged below-trend hours worked as a sign of labour market slack, but other indicators point to very tight job market conditions. The strength of the job market will no doubt impact the Bank of Canada’s assessment. The Canadian dollar surged on today’s news.

Q3 GDP Growth Slowed

The strong jobs market has been reflected in the rise in consumer spending, noted in another report released today by Stats Canada, helping to offset the slowdown in exports and housing. GDP growth in the third quarter slowed to 1.7%, down sharply from the 4.3% gain in the prior three months. This slowdown was expected as the Q2 pace of expansion was unsustainable. The Bank of Canada estimates that the longer-term potential growth rate is close to 1.7%.

GDP growth in Q3 continued to be concentrated in household spending with a stronger-than-expected 4.0% increase that built onto a 5.0% surge in Q2. Government investment spending also jumped higher, though, and business investment rose for a third straight quarter — albeit at a more modest pace than over the first half of the year. Offset came from a large, but expected, pullback in net trade.

Exports fell sharply in the third quarter subtracting 3.4 percentage points from the growth rate. The decline was mainly attributable to motor vehicles and parts (-9.0%), primarily passenger cars and light trucks. Imports were virtually unchanged.

Household spending represents a record proportion of the overall economy (see chart below). The compensation of employees increased 1.3% in nominal terms in the third quarter, a quicker pace than in the previous 11 quarters. Wages and salaries rose 1.9% in goods-producing industries and 1.1% in services-producing industries. Regionally, Ontario and Quebec continued to fuel wage growth in the third quarter.

Housing investment weakened, posting the first back-to-back quarterly decline in investment in residential structures since the first quarter of 2013. Ownership transfer costs, which reflect activity in the resale housing market fell sharply for the second consecutive quarter.

Monthly GDP data, also released this morning, were perhaps more encouraging than the quarterly data regarding near-term growth implications. September GDP rose a stronger-than-expected 0.2% (nonannualized) to more-than-retrace a 0.1% dip in August. That left somewhat stronger momentum at the end of the quarter than we previously assumed. The data are still pointing to a slowing in underlying GDP growth from the outsized pace from mid-2016 to mid-2017 but is also still fully consistent with the Bank of Canada’s view that growth will be sustained at a modestly above-trend 2% pace going forward.

Dr. Sherry Cooper

Dr. Sherry Cooper

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.